EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Coastal Infrastructure Resilience Assessment — Q4 2025

This report presents the findings of a six-month study commissioned by the
National Coastal Management Authority (NCMA) to assess the resilience of
critical infrastructure along 2,400 kilometres of coastline in the
Southeastern Region. The study covered 47 ports, 12 power generation
facilities, 8 water treatment plants, and 210 kilometres of coastal
highway. Total project cost was $3.8 million, funded through the Federal
Resilience Grant Programme (FRGP-2024-0882).


1. INTRODUCTION

Climate models predict a 0.8 to 1.4 metre sea-level rise in the
Southeastern Region by 2070. Combined with increased storm surge
frequency, this poses a direct threat to coastal infrastructure valued at
approximately $94 billion. The NCMA identified an urgent need to
prioritise adaptation investments before the next five-year budget cycle.


2. METHODOLOGY

2.1 Data Collection
We conducted on-site inspections at all 67 facilities between March and
August 2025. Each site was assessed by a team of three engineers using a
standardised 140-point checklist covering structural integrity,
flood exposure, electrical system vulnerability, and evacuation
readiness.

2.2 Modelling
We used the Coastal Hazard Assessment Model (CHAM v4.2) to simulate storm
surge scenarios under three emissions pathways: RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and
RCP 8.5. Each pathway was tested against 10-year, 50-year, and 100-year
storm events. The model incorporates bathymetry data from the National
Oceanographic Survey (2023 release) and tide gauge records from 1980 to
2024.

2.3 Limitations
- CHAM v4.2 does not model compound flooding (simultaneous river and
  coastal flooding), which may underestimate risk at 8 sites near river
  mouths.
- Our funding did not cover geotechnical soil analysis. Foundation
  integrity assumptions are based on visual inspection only.
- Port-specific cargo throughput projections were provided by port
  operators and have not been independently verified.


3. FINDINGS

3.1 Overall Risk Profile
We classified each facility into one of four risk categories:

- Critical (immediate action required): 12 facilities (18%)
- High (action required within 3 years): 23 facilities (34%)
- Moderate (action required within 10 years): 19 facilities (28%)
- Low (monitoring sufficient): 13 facilities (19%)

The 12 critical facilities include 6 ports, 3 power plants, 2 water
treatment plants, and a 14-kilometre section of coastal highway (Segment
B-7, between Millerton and Capeview).

3.2 Sector Analysis

Ports: Six critical-risk ports handle a combined 14.2 million tonnes of
cargo annually, representing 31% of the region's maritime trade. The
Port of Eastbridge alone accounts for 8.4 million tonnes. Flood modelling
shows Eastbridge's container terminal would experience monthly inundation
under RCP 8.5 by 2065 without intervention.

Power Generation: The three critical-risk facilities (Southport Thermal,
Rivermouth Gas, and Bayview Wind Farm) provide 2,800 MW of combined
capacity. Southport Thermal's cooling water intake is currently 1.2 metres
above mean sea level. Under a 100-year storm surge scenario (RCP 8.5),
the intake would be submerged, forcing a shutdown that could take 4 to 6
weeks to reverse.

Water Treatment: The Westbeach and Sandcliffe plants serve 1.4 million
residents. Both sit on land less than 2 metres above sea level. Their
current flood defences (earthen berms built in 1998) were rated
insufficient for any scenario beyond 2040.

Coastal Highway: Segment B-7 is the only road link to three coastal
communities (combined population: 28,000). Storm surge modelling shows
this segment would be impassable during a 10-year storm event by 2045
under RCP 6.0.

3.3 Economic Impact Estimate
A 90-day simultaneous shutdown of the six critical ports would result in
an estimated $2.1 billion in direct economic losses and affect
approximately 47,000 jobs in the logistics sector. This estimate is based
on the Regional Input-Output Model (RIOM 2024) and assumes no alternative
routing capacity (current truck and rail infrastructure is already at
92% utilisation).


4. RECOMMENDATIONS

4.1 Immediate (Year 1-2, Estimated Cost: $480M)
- Raise the Eastbridge container terminal deck by 1.8 metres.
- Construct a sea wall protecting Southport Thermal's cooling intake
  (estimated height: 3.5 metres, length: 800 metres).
- Begin design work on a bypass route for Coastal Highway Segment B-7.

4.2 Medium-Term (Year 3-5, Estimated Cost: $1.2B)
- Relocate Westbeach Water Treatment Plant to higher ground (identified
  site: 4.2 km inland, 18 metres elevation).
- Upgrade flood defences at all 23 high-risk facilities.
- Install real-time flood monitoring sensors at all critical and
  high-risk sites.

4.3 Long-Term (Year 5-10, Estimated Cost: $2.9B)
- Develop a second container terminal at the Port of Deepwater (a
  naturally sheltered deep-water site 30 km south of Eastbridge).
- Establish a Coastal Resilience Fund with mandatory contributions from
  facility operators.

Total estimated investment across all timeframes: $4.58 billion. This
represents approximately 4.9% of the infrastructure value protected.
We note that the cost of inaction — a single 90-day port shutdown —
exceeds $2 billion, meaning the investment pays for itself after
approximately two such events.


5. CONCLUSION

The Southeastern Region's coastal infrastructure faces significant and
escalating risk from sea-level rise and storm surge. Twelve facilities
require immediate intervention. The recommended $4.58 billion adaptation
programme, while substantial, is cost-justified when measured against the
economic consequences of inaction. We urge the NCMA to prioritise the
Year 1-2 immediate actions for inclusion in the upcoming federal budget.


APPENDIX A: Full Risk Assessment Scores (see attached spreadsheet)
APPENDIX B: CHAM v4.2 Model Parameters
APPENDIX C: Site Inspection Photographs (47 pages)